◂ Linimasa Peristiwa

12 Nov 2024MAKROTiongkok

Global investment banks rush to trim yuan forecasts under looming Trump tariff threats

Global investment banks are cutting yuan forecasts as Trump's proposed tariffs and tax policies loom. The policies are expected to be inflationary, keeping US interest rates high and supporting the dollar against trading partner currencies.

MENGAPA INI PENTING

Expected yuan weakness and a firmer dollar raise the cost of US agricultural imports for China, which could reduce demand for US feed grains and meal.

BERDAMPAK PADAYuan Tiongkok (CNY per USD)▲Dolar AS (Luas)▲Kedelai▼

1 SUMBER
reuters.com12 Nov 2024

Reaksi harga & riwayat

Yuan Tiongkok (CNY per USD)▲bullishSEJAUH INI1d +0,7%5d +0,8%20d +1,0%

Setelah 398 peristiwa makro bullish sebelumnya, Yuan Tiongkok (CNY per USD) bergerak median +0,0% selama 5 sesi (56% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -0,3% sampai +0,5%), dan +0,0% selama 20 sesi.

28 Nov 2024Chinese yuan to hit record lows as U.S. tariff threat mounts, investment banks forecast+0,1%
20 Jan 2025A weakening yuan tests Beijing's resolve as Trump tariff threats loom-1,0%
12 Nov 2024China’s yuan weakens to 3-1/2-month low as Trump tariff threat weighs - Markets - Business Recorder+0,8%
3 Des 2024China’s yuan hits lowest level in months as Trump tariff threats roil currencies | South China Morning Post-0,2%
16 Nov 2016China’s Yuan Tumbles to Eight-Year Low as Banks Weaken Forecasts - Bloomberg+0,5%

Dolar AS (Luas)▲bullishSEJAUH INI1d +1,0%5d +0,8%20d +1,1%

Setelah 2.356 peristiwa makro bullish sebelumnya, Dolar AS (Luas) bergerak median +0,2% selama 5 sesi (60% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -0,3% sampai +0,7%), dan +0,4% selama 20 sesi.

16 Nov 2016China’s Yuan Tumbles to Eight-Year Low as Banks Weaken Forecasts - Bloomberg+0,6%
26 Sep 2025Korean won sinks amid US investment jitters; Seoul plans 24-hour FX trading - KED Global-0,1%
31 Jan 2025EUR/USD faces pressure as Trump's tariff threats improve USD's appeal+0,1%
30 Mei 2018Why we’re forecasting the yuan to depreciate | articles | ING THINK+0,0%
20 Feb 2024Foreign exchange rate forecast to be under control in 2024-0,1%

Kedelai▼bearishSEJAUH INI1d -0,8%5d -0,2%20d -1,7%

Setelah 273 peristiwa makro bearish sebelumnya, Kedelai bergerak median -0,4% selama 5 sesi (44% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -2,4% sampai +1,4%), dan -0,5% selama 20 sesi.

28 Nov 2024Chinese yuan to hit record lows as U.S. tariff threat mounts, investment banks forecast+0,5%
20 Jan 2025A weakening yuan tests Beijing's resolve as Trump tariff threats loom+1,1%
12 Nov 2024China’s yuan weakens to 3-1/2-month low as Trump tariff threat weighs - Markets - Business Recorder-0,2%
3 Des 2024China’s yuan hits lowest level in months as Trump tariff threats roil currencies | South China Morning Post+0,5%
31 Jan 2025Dollar advances after White House reiterates Trump tariff threats+1,6%

Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.

Pergerakan harga terkait

Yuan Tiongkok (CNY per USD)+1,9%5 periode sampai 12 Nov 20244,8σ
Banks cutting yuan forecasts on tariff and inflationary US policy reinforced depreciation expectations and sentiment on Nov 12.
Dolar AS (Luas)+1,0%1 periode sampai 12 Nov 20243,1σ
Same-day bank yuan forecast cuts on Trump tariff and inflation expectations reflect higher-for-longer US rates supporting the dollar against trading partner currencies.

Yuan Tiongkok (CNY per USD) USDCNY · GP ▸

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Dolar AS (Luas) DXY · GP ▸

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