
DTN analyst Joel Karlin notes corn futures have rallied at least 30 cents since July 12 on fund short covering, lower coarse grain estimates in the EU and Black Sea, and the lowest stocks-to-use projections in five years. He estimates 2018/19 U.S. ending stocks could be at least 130 million bushels below USDA's May projection, depending on yield and export assumptions.
If USDA's 174 bpa yield is too low versus the trade's 177-178 estimate, the stocks outlook could tighten further or ease depending on exports, so yield and export pace will set corn price direction. Lower projected stocks are supportive for corn and feed costs.
Setelah 1.040 peristiwa laporan bullish sebelumnya, Jagung bergerak median +0,5% selama 5 sesi (62% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -0,9% sampai +2,0%), dan +0,8% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.