Rabobank raised its year-end USD/BRL forecast by 10 cents to 3.90 for both 2019 and 2020. The bank said about 30% of the move from roughly 3.70 in mid-July to about 4.15 in late September reflects external drivers, mainly the stronger dollar after the Sino-American trade dispute.
A weaker real forecast supports Brazilian export competitiveness for soybeans, corn and meal, which can cap USD prices. The bank's view that the currency could still ease later adds uncertainty for export-driven demand.
Setelah 301 peristiwa makro bullish sebelumnya, Real Brasil (BRL per USD) bergerak median +0,4% selama 5 sesi (57% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,2% sampai +1,7%), dan +1,0% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.