Analyst Dan Braun argues that a US-China trade pact would only benefit U.S. soybeans if China buys when the market is favorable, while committed volumes could damage the U.S. market. Roughly 60% of U.S. soybean exports went to China before the trade war, and U.S. exports to the rest of the world rose sharply in 2018.
Fixed purchase commitments could pull U.S. soybeans away from competitive world markets and weigh on prices over the longer term, while the rest-of-world outlet has already absorbed much of the lost China volume.
Setelah 369 peristiwa kebijakan bearish sebelumnya, Kedelai bergerak median -0,2% selama 5 sesi (46% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,7% sampai +1,8%), dan +0,8% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.