MUFG said the USD/CNY decline on Friday was the largest daily drop since March 2018, and it expects further catch-up as Chinese markets return from a week-long holiday. The decline was driven by optimism over a US fiscal stimulus deal and rising expectations of a Biden election victory.
MUFG warned that the stimulus outlook carries disappointment risk.
A weaker dollar and stronger yuan support Chinese import demand and dollar-priced commodities. The effect on feed prices is modest and depends on whether stimulus materializes.
Setelah 1.637 peristiwa makro bearish sebelumnya, Dolar AS (Luas) bergerak median -0,2% selama 5 sesi (39% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -0,6% sampai +0,3%), dan -0,2% selama 20 sesi.
Setelah 362 peristiwa makro bearish sebelumnya, Yuan Tiongkok (CNY per USD) bergerak median -0,1% selama 5 sesi (42% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -0,4% sampai +0,1%), dan -0,2% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.
MUFG attributes the largest daily USD/CNY drop since March 2018 to catch-up after the Chinese holiday, US stimulus optimism and Biden election expectations, directly explaining the move.