
ING analysis says the ECB's March 12 package was modest, with no rate cut and only muted quantitative easing. The analysis says the lack of conviction from ECB President Christine Lagarde, including her remark that the bank was not there to close spreads, reintroduced risk premium into the euro.
The note argues that the ball is now in the Federal Reserve's court.
Weaker euro sentiment means a firmer dollar, which tends to weigh on dollar-priced commodities and raises import costs for euro zone buyers. The effect on feed markets is indirect and depends on whether the Federal Reserve responds.
Setelah 533 peristiwa makro bearish sebelumnya, Euro (USD per EUR) bergerak median -0,3% selama 5 sesi (33% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,2% sampai +0,2%), dan -0,5% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.