
EUR/USD fell from 1.2160 to 1.21 after reports the ECB might cut its already negative deposit rate. IIF chief economist Robin Brooks argues that deposit rate cuts are ineffective against euro strength because the currency is driven by longer-dated 5- and 10-year yield differentials.
He says the ECB's focus on the deposit rate is misguided.
If the ECB cannot weaken the euro through short-term rates, the euro may stay firm against the dollar, which would keep dollar-priced commodities relatively cheaper in Europe. Markets may need a larger policy shift to move the rate.
Setelah 129 peristiwa makro netral sebelumnya, Euro (USD per EUR) bergerak median -0,1% selama 5 sesi (45% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -0,5% sampai +0,5%), dan +0,1% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.