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ICE Brent fell more than 13% on March 9, 2022, to near $111 a barrel, as Ukrainian government comments about willingness to compromise to end the war triggered a broad sell-off in Russia-exposed commodities. The EIA reported US crude inventories fell 4.39 million barrels, with distillate stocks down 5.23 million barrels, and reports of UAE comments on OPEC+ output added to the volatility.
Oil prices are highly sensitive to Russia-Ukraine headlines, so energy and freight costs for feed can swing sharply on peace or escalation news. Falling distillate stocks partly offset the price drop and keep diesel costs elevated.
think.ing.comWarren Patterson10 Mar 2022Setelah 250 peristiwa geopolitik bearish sebelumnya, Minyak Mentah (Brent) bergerak median -3,1% selama 5 sesi (36% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -7,9% sampai +1,6%), dan -5,5% selama 20 sesi.
Setelah 255 peristiwa geopolitik bearish sebelumnya, Minyak Mentah (WTI) bergerak median -2,4% selama 5 sesi (31% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -7,0% sampai +1,7%), dan -5,0% selama 20 sesi.
Setelah 51 peristiwa geopolitik bearish sebelumnya, ULSD / Solar bergerak median -2,4% selama 5 sesi (37% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -8,2% sampai +3,9%), dan -2,3% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.
Links the Brent sell-off to Ukrainian willingness to compromise, which cut the war risk premium, plus the UAE OPEC+ comments.
Ukrainian willingness to compromise triggered a broad sell-off in Russia-exposed commodities, cutting the geopolitical risk premium.
