◂ Linimasa Peristiwa

26 Mei 2021CUACAGlobal

IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | May Climate Briefing: Neutral Conditions are Here

The IRI reports that tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures are now within the ENSO-neutral range, with atmospheric indicators consistent with the end of La Niña. Model runs predict neutral conditions likely through August-October 2021.

MENGAPA INI PENTING

A persistent neutral outlook reduces the odds of weather-driven supply shocks from La Niña in key producing regions, which is mildly bearish for grain and oilseed prices. The effect is modest because the forecast is already widely expected.

BERDAMPAK PADAJagung▼Kedelai▼

1 SUMBER
iri.columbia.edu26 Mei 2021

Reaksi harga & riwayat

Jagung▼bearishSEJAUH INI1d +0,6%5d +8,1%20d +6,4%

Setelah 357 peristiwa cuaca bearish sebelumnya, Jagung bergerak median -0,3% selama 5 sesi (44% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -2,2% sampai +1,3%), dan -0,5% selama 20 sesi.

19 Mar 2019IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | 2019 March Quick Look-0,3%
19 Des 2018IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | 2018 December Quick Look-0,4%
10 Jul 2025Climate Prediction Center sees 56% chance of ENSO neutral conditions in August-October-1,0%
11 Des 2025La Niña to fade early next year, neutral Pacific conditions likely, U.S. forecasters say - AgCanada+0,5%
23 Jan 2020Favourable growing conditions forecast for major ag regions - Grainews-1,0%

Kedelai▼bearishSEJAUH INI1d -0,5%5d +3,4%20d -8,4%

Setelah 363 peristiwa cuaca bearish sebelumnya, Kedelai bergerak median -0,6% selama 5 sesi (42% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -2,5% sampai +1,1%), dan -0,2% selama 20 sesi.

19 Mar 2019IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | 2019 March Quick Look+0,1%
19 Des 2018IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | 2018 December Quick Look-4,2%
10 Jul 2025Climate Prediction Center sees 56% chance of ENSO neutral conditions in August-October+0,1%
11 Des 2025La Niña to fade early next year, neutral Pacific conditions likely, U.S. forecasters say - AgCanada-3,0%
23 Jan 2020Favourable growing conditions forecast for major ag regions - Grainews-2,3%

Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.

Jagung CORN · GP ▸

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Kedelai SOY · GP ▸

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