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StoneX's Josh Linville says urea prices should rally over the next month or two. Chinese urea exports remain absent, about 5M tonnes a year, and Iranian production is offline, removing roughly 4.8M tonnes of annual exports.
European output is still about 75% of normal.
Missing Chinese and Iranian supply plus European shortfalls tighten the global urea balance ahead of spring buying, which supports higher urea prices. Large Chinese stockpiles are a risk that could cap the rally.
stonex.comJosh Linville3 Feb 2025Setelah 176 peristiwa perdagangan bullish sebelumnya, Urea bergerak median +0,1% selama 5 sesi (51% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,3% sampai +2,4%), dan +1,6% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.
Absent Chinese exports, offline Iranian output (~4.8 Mt/yr) and European output at ~75% of normal point to a supply-driven rally in the next month or two.
Published 2025-02-03, it highlights absent Chinese exports, offline Iranian output and reduced European production, a supply-tightness narrative supporting a bullish repricing.
Absent Chinese exports, offline Iranian output and reduced European production constrain supply, supporting the bullish outlook and price momentum.
