An Argus Media assessment ranks the exposure of eight major fertilizers to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and sanctions, using measures such as Russian share of capacity, production and trade. Ammonia is judged the most exposed, followed by potash and urea, while sulphuric acid is least affected.
The analysis says physical disruption so far has been limited but the psychological impact on trading risk is large, and booking freight from Russian ports is becoming difficult.
Ranking the most exposed nutrients highlights where future supply gaps are most likely, which supports firm urea and potash prices. Freight problems from Russian ports add further cost pressure on delivered fertilizer.
Setelah 205 peristiwa geopolitik bullish sebelumnya, Urea bergerak median +0,4% selama 5 sesi (53% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -2,1% sampai +3,0%), dan -0,4% selama 20 sesi.
Belum cukup peristiwa historis yang sebanding untuk analisis historis.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.