Early signs suggest El Niño will bring a normal Australian wheat crop of roughly 25 to 30 million tonnes, ending a run of record harvests. The weather pattern is expected to bring drier and hotter conditions, although soil moisture is currently good across most of the country.
Historically, El Niño years have produced some of the worst eastern Australian droughts.
A smaller Australian crop would reduce export supply after several record years, which supports wheat prices. The effect depends on how dry the coming season turns out.
Setelah 1.072 peristiwa cuaca bullish sebelumnya, Gandum (SRW) bergerak median +0,2% selama 5 sesi (55% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,4% sampai +2,3%), dan +0,3% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.