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The World Meteorological Organization has declared the start of the first El Niño in seven years, with a 90% chance it develops in 2023 at moderate strength. The article says the global price impact on wheat and other staples is likely to be modest, though local effects could be severe.
Global wheat supply is unlikely to fall sharply from this event alone, so the price effect is modest and mostly a risk premium. Regional dryness in exporting countries could still tighten wheat supplies.
theconversation.comDavid Ubilava13 Jul 2023Setelah 224 peristiwa cuaca netral sebelumnya, Gandum (SRW) bergerak median -0,1% selama 5 sesi (46% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,4% sampai +1,5%), dan +0,4% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.
