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Commerzbank says the Brazilian real is well positioned over the medium term despite expected central bank rate cuts, and that the central bank could cut the Selic by 50 basis points to 11.75%. It warns the real could weaken in the short term if markets price in faster cuts.
The bank argues downside for the currency is limited given the central bank's inflation credibility.
A firmer real makes Brazilian soybean and corn exports less competitive in dollar terms and can slow farmer selling, while a weaker real would support export flows. The outlook is a currency view rather than a supply or demand shock.
octaafrica.net13 Des 2023Setelah 92 peristiwa makro netral sebelumnya, Real Brasil (BRL per USD) bergerak median +0,4% selama 5 sesi (58% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -0,7% sampai +1,4%), dan +0,4% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.
