
BofA analysts expect European gas prices to rise into winter 2025/26 as TTF has doubled since February. They flag risks of lost Russian supply in January and the absence of Ukrainian auxiliary storage.
Jefferies also sees near-term prices reflecting heightened geopolitical risk around the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk, near the Sudzha gas metering station.
Expected higher winter gas prices and geopolitical supply risk raise European energy and fertilizer costs. This tends to support nitrogen and energy-linked input prices for feed.
Setelah 136 peristiwa geopolitik bullish sebelumnya, Gas Alam bergerak median +2,7% selama 5 sesi (63% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,8% sampai +8,8%), dan +4,0% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.