◂ Linimasa Peristiwa

14 Nov 2024CUACAGlobal

US forecaster sees 57% chance of La Nina developing between now and December

Reuters reports that US forecasters see a 57% chance La Niña develops before December. AccuWeather's Dale Mohler says the event is expected to be weak and short-lived, so crop impacts may be smaller than typical.

MENGAPA INI PENTING

A weak, late La Niña is unlikely to cut crops materially, so the price effect on grains and oilseeds is limited.

BERDAMPAK PADAJagung◆Kedelai◆Gandum (SRW)◆

1 SUMBER
reuters.com14 Nov 2024

Reaksi harga & riwayat

Jagung◆netralSEJAUH INI1d -1,1%5d +0,2%20d +0,4%

Setelah 445 peristiwa cuaca netral sebelumnya, Jagung bergerak median +0,1% selama 5 sesi (52% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,4% sampai +1,6%), dan +0,7% selama 20 sesi.

12 Des 2024US forecaster sees 59% chance of weak, brief La Nina forming by January-0,0%
14 Mei 2020U.S. forecaster sees 65% chance for no El Nino, La Nina during summer-0,0%
13 Jun 2024La Nina weather 65% likely to develop in July-Sept, says US forecaster | Reuters-2,1%
12 Feb 2026US forecaster sees signs of La Nina shift towards El Nino conditions in early 2026 | Reuters-0,0%
8 Mei 2025US CPC sees 74% chance of ENSO Neutral conditions through June-August | Reuters-0,6%

Kedelai◆netralSEJAUH INI1d -1,8%5d -1,4%20d -0,8%

Setelah 324 peristiwa cuaca netral sebelumnya, Kedelai bergerak median +0,0% selama 5 sesi (52% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,4% sampai +1,7%), dan +0,7% selama 20 sesi.

12 Des 2024US forecaster sees 59% chance of weak, brief La Nina forming by January-4,4%
14 Mei 2020U.S. forecaster sees 65% chance for no El Nino, La Nina during summer+1,3%
12 Feb 2026US forecaster sees signs of La Nina shift towards El Nino conditions in early 2026 | Reuters+1,5%
8 Mei 2025US CPC sees 74% chance of ENSO Neutral conditions through June-August | Reuters+3,5%
26 Des 2019Brazil Corn and Soybeans Developing Nicely | Red River Farm Network+0,8%

Gandum (SRW)◆netralSEJAUH INI1d -0,3%5d -0,5%20d +0,2%

Setelah 224 peristiwa cuaca netral sebelumnya, Gandum (SRW) bergerak median -0,1% selama 5 sesi (46% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,4% sampai +1,5%), dan +0,4% selama 20 sesi.

12 Des 2024US forecaster sees 59% chance of weak, brief La Nina forming by January-0,5%
13 Jun 2024La Nina weather 65% likely to develop in July-Sept, says US forecaster | Reuters-2,1%
15 Des 2022La Nina Pattern Continues Through December for South America-1,1%
10 Sep 2020La Nina develops during peak hurricane season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration+0,4%
28 Sep 2017IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | September Climate Briefing: Surprise La Niña or Ephemeral Cooling?+5,4%

Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.

Jagung CORN · GP ▸

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Kedelai SOY · GP ▸

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