
Morningstar analysts say a US-Russia arrangement to exclude the Black Sea from the conflict would let Russia export fertilizer using EU ships if the EU approves. They expect limited price effects because Russian exports have already found markets in China and India.
They also expect potash prices to rise in 2025 as Belarus and Russia cut production.
Restored Russian fertilizer access adds supply that could cap prices, but the effect is expected to be small. Production cuts by Belarus and Russia support potash prices, which keeps input costs firm for feed-crop producers.
Setelah 11 peristiwa geopolitik netral sebelumnya, Urea bergerak median +0,4% selama 5 sesi (64% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,0% sampai +5,9%), dan +7,8% selama 20 sesi.
Belum cukup peristiwa historis yang sebanding untuk analisis historis.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.