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Rabobank's semi-annual outlook says global fertilizer markets are entering a contraction phase as high prices erode affordability. It forecasts weaker demand in 2025 and a sharper decline in 2026, with urea consumption falling and phosphate consumption about 4% lower globally.
Lower fertilizer demand in 2026 eases the cost pressure on crop input budgets and could soften urea and phosphate prices, although tight supply from China limits the downside. Weaker input use can also affect future crop yields and grain balances.
rabobank.comBruno Fonseca Analyst28 Okt 2025Setelah 42 peristiwa laporan bearish sebelumnya, Urea bergerak median +0,3% selama 5 sesi (57% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,9% sampai +3,3%), dan +2,9% selama 20 sesi.
Setelah 35 peristiwa laporan bearish sebelumnya, DAP bergerak median 0,0% selama 5 sesi (37% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -0,7% sampai +1,5%), dan +0,6% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.
Rabobank's outlook for a contraction phase and roughly 4% lower phosphate consumption signals weakening demand sentiment that supports a price decline.
Rabobank's outlook for a demand contraction (phosphate consumption down about 4%) published 2025-10-28 would weigh on DAP sentiment shortly before the drop.
