Bank of America forecasts the Brazilian real will strengthen to 5.25 per dollar by end-2026 and hold that level through 2027. The bank also projects Brazil's policy rate falling to 11.75% by end-2026, with back-to-back 50-basis-point cuts expected.
A stronger real would reduce the local-currency cost of Brazilian soybean and corn exports, making them less attractive to buyers priced in dollars. Expected rate cuts would narrow the carry that has supported the currency.
Setelah 213 peristiwa makro bearish sebelumnya, Real Brasil (BRL per USD) bergerak median -0,2% selama 5 sesi (46% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,5% sampai +0,9%), dan +0,2% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.