◂ Linimasa Peristiwa

13 Mar 2026CUACAAS

El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño watch, forecasting a 62% chance of El Niño forming between June and August and persisting through 2026. It puts the chance of a strong event in October to December at about one in three.

MENGAPA INI PENTING

An El Niño watch signals rising risk of weather disruption to US planting and to South Asian and Australian crops later in the year. This supports a modest weather premium in corn and soybeans, though confidence in the strength of the event is low.

BERDAMPAK PADAJagung▲Kedelai▲Gandum (SRW)▲

1 SUMBER
agweb.com13 Mar 2026

Reaksi harga & riwayat

Jagung▲bullishSEJAUH INI1d +0,8%5d +4,1%20d -0,9%

Setelah 1.465 peristiwa cuaca bullish sebelumnya, Jagung bergerak median +0,2% selama 5 sesi (54% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,4% sampai +1,9%), dan +0,9% selama 20 sesi.

20 Jul 2026El Niño casts a shadow over agri markets, but global food fears may be overblown | articles | ING THINK+3,9%
24 Mei 2023The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer - AgWeb-3,4%
21 Jan 2026Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer - AgWeb+0,8%
10 Okt 2024US forecaster sees 60% chance of La Niña weather in September-November-2,6%
20 Mei 2025It's Not Just Drought Meteorologists Are Concerned About This Summer, It's Also Heat - AgWeb+1,6%

Kedelai▲bullishSEJAUH INI1d -0,2%5d -3,7%20d -3,1%

Setelah 1.079 peristiwa cuaca bullish sebelumnya, Kedelai bergerak median +0,3% selama 5 sesi (54% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,4% sampai +2,0%), dan +0,9% selama 20 sesi.

24 Mei 2023The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer - AgWeb-1,7%
21 Jan 2026Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer - AgWeb+1,4%
10 Okt 2024US forecaster sees 60% chance of La Niña weather in September-November-3,9%
20 Mei 2025It's Not Just Drought Meteorologists Are Concerned About This Summer, It's Also Heat - AgWeb+1,1%
18 Apr 2024IRI Summer Forecast Points to Western Corn Belt Dryness Due to La Nina Influence+1,4%

Gandum (SRW)▲bullishSEJAUH INI1d +1,7%5d -0,2%20d -2,6%

Setelah 1.072 peristiwa cuaca bullish sebelumnya, Gandum (SRW) bergerak median +0,2% selama 5 sesi (55% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,4% sampai +2,3%), dan +0,3% selama 20 sesi.

24 Mei 2023The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer - AgWeb-2,4%
14 Mar 2024US forecaster sees higher chance of La Nina conditions this summer | Reuters+0,4%
9 Mar 2017El Nino may arrive this summer and fall+0,7%
10 Okt 2024US forecaster sees 60% chance of La Niña weather in September-November-0,5%
8 Jun 2023Extreme weather expected as El Nino climate pattern returns, US forecaster says | Reuters-0,0%

Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.

Jagung CORN · GP ▸

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Kedelai SOY · GP ▸

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