A University of Arkansas economist says feeder cattle futures were highly volatile after the screwworm confirmation in Texas, with August contracts trading between $335 and $353. The market initially fell but then closed limit up.
The economist expects little change in retail beef prices, though local Texas and New Mexico cattle markets may be affected.
Nearby cattle markets face the most immediate price effects from movement restrictions and fear of spread. Retail beef prices are less affected, so the impact on feeder cattle futures is mainly a short-term volatility story.
Setelah 29 peristiwa penyakit netral sebelumnya, Sapi Bakalan bergerak median +0,6% selama 5 sesi (62% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,5% sampai +2,2%), dan +1,0% selama 20 sesi.
Setelah 69 peristiwa penyakit netral sebelumnya, Sapi Hidup bergerak median -0,1% selama 5 sesi (42% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -0,8% sampai +0,6%), dan +0,9% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.
Economist commentary on the volatile feeder futures and limit-up close after the screwworm confirmation supports the same price action.