Black Sea wheat traders had not yet changed trading behavior despite Russian troop build-up near the Ukrainian border, which includes about 100,000 troops. Russia and Ukraine together account for 23% of global wheat exports, and Chicago wheat rose 7.4% in two days on tension-driven buying.
The ruble and hryvnia weakened more than 3% against the dollar.
The sharp Chicago wheat rally reflects a geopolitical risk premium that could fade or intensify depending on developments, and currency weakness in Russia and Ukraine tends to support their export competitiveness.
Setelah 361 peristiwa geopolitik bullish sebelumnya, Gandum (SRW) bergerak median +0,7% selama 5 sesi (58% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,4% sampai +3,7%), dan +1,3% selama 20 sesi.
Setelah 323 peristiwa geopolitik bullish sebelumnya, Jagung bergerak median +0,5% selama 5 sesi (57% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,5% sampai +2,9%), dan +0,9% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.