
Turkey and the UN announced that the Black Sea Grain Deal, which allows safe export of Ukrainian grain, was renewed on March 18, 2023, for at least 60 days, half the intended period. Russia had warned that extensions beyond mid-May would depend on removing some Western sanctions.
Continuation removes a supply-disruption risk premium for Black Sea wheat and corn, which is mildly bearish for feed grain prices. The short duration keeps uncertainty alive into May.
Setelah 87 peristiwa geopolitik bearish sebelumnya, Jagung bergerak median +0,1% selama 5 sesi (51% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,5% sampai +2,1%), dan +0,3% selama 20 sesi.
Setelah 80 peristiwa geopolitik bearish sebelumnya, Gandum (SRW) bergerak median -0,4% selama 5 sesi (44% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,4% sampai +1,9%), dan -0,5% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.
The Black Sea Grain Deal extension on March 18, just before the Monday drop, removed the risk of an export disruption from Ukraine and lowered the supply-risk premium in wheat, even though it ran only 60 days.