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China is expected to ship at least 1.2 million tonnes of urea to India, marking a ramp-up after Beijing loosened export controls. The volume would make up at least two-thirds of India's latest tender, with shipments due to leave by September 24.
Prices surged to a four-year high in April but have since fallen back.
Chinese tonnage flowing to India's tender increases available urea supply and signals improving market balance, which is bearish for nitrogen fertilizer prices.
business-standard.comBloomberg27 août 2026Après 81 événements commerce baissier passés, Urée a varié en médiane de -1,0 % sur 5 séances (28 % de hausses ; moitié centrale de -7,2 % à +0,4 %), et de -5,5 % sur 20.
Variations du benchmark de chaque matière depuis la dernière clôture avant l'événement. Les lectures historiques regroupent les événements passés de même nature ; elles décrivent ce qui s'est passé, pas ce qui arrivera. Ceci n'est pas un conseil en investissement.
China's large urea shipments to India in the tender (published Aug 27, just before the move) reshape trade flows and price discovery, so they plausibly contributed to the jump.
Duplicate coverage of China's 1.2 Mt shipment to India under the loosened export controls, affecting global supply and demand balance ahead of the move.
