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StoneX analyst Nate Donnay estimates that US government dairy purchases in 2020 pushed the CME block cheese price up about 64 cents per pound and butter up 31 cents from May through November. He estimates the purchases lifted the average Class III milk price by about $6.30/cwt and Class IV by about $1.31/cwt.
Purchases through the food box program and other programs totaled roughly $1.33 billion.
Government buying has been a major source of dairy price support and volatility, so feed buyers should expect dairy-linked demand and milk prices to be sensitive to any reduction in these programs.
hoards.comNate Donnay, StoneX Group Inc.30 nov. 2020Après 17 événements politique haussier passés, Lait (Classe III) a varié en médiane de -0,6 % sur 5 séances (29 % de hausses ; moitié centrale de -1,6 % à +0,2 %), et de -3,0 % sur 20.
Variations du benchmark de chaque matière depuis la dernière clôture avant l'événement. Les lectures historiques regroupent les événements passés de même nature ; elles décrivent ce qui s'est passé, pas ce qui arrivera. Ceci n'est pas un conseil en investissement.
Shows government food box purchases had inflated cheese and Class III prices, so their fading removed support and fed the reversal.
