# Russia and Ukraine wheat export forecasts cut | FOLITIC

> USDA cut its combined 2026/27 wheat export forecast for Russia and Ukraine by 2 million metric tons in its November 10 WASDE report, lowering Russia's projection by 1 million tons to 39 million and Ukraine's by the same amount to 11.5 million. The agency attributed shipments below historical averages to the Black Sea conflict, even as it raised projected global wheat supplies by 6.4 million tons to 1,110.4 million.

- Date: 2026-11-14 · published 2026-11-14T21:14:13.326Z
- Category: report · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/99989-russia-and-ukraine-wheat-export-forecasts-cut-folitic
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Lower Black Sea export availability tightens the trade picture for importers even though global supply rose, supporting wheat prices and forcing buyers to weigh delivery reliability and replacement costs.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2024-09-19 | [France lowers soft wheat harvest and export forecasts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28264-france-lowers-soft-wheat-harvest-and-export-forecasts.md) | +11.4% | +5.6% |
| WHEAT | 2026-09-30 | [Russian 2026/27 Wheat Export Forecast Cut by 4.7 MMT - The Sizov Report blog](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14084-russian-2026-27-wheat-export-forecast-cut-by-4-7-mmt-the-sizov-report-blog.md) | -2.5% | +1.3% |
| WHEAT | 2022-09-30 | [GRAINS-Wheat Soars on U.S. Output Cuts, Russian Annexation of Ukraine Land](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39603-grains-wheat-soars-on-u-s-output-cuts-russian-annexation-of-ukraine-land.md) | +0.4% | -10.7% |
| WHEAT | 2019-12-11 | [Australian wheat export forecast cut, imports tripled: WASDE - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55534-australian-wheat-export-forecast-cut-imports-tripled-wasde-grain-central.md) | +2.6% | +4.1% |
| WHEAT | 2024-07-31 | [Ukraine food and grain exports gain steam](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14289-ukraine-food-and-grain-exports-gain-steam.md) | +5.3% | -2.8% |
| KWHEAT | 2022-09-30 | [GRAINS-Wheat Soars on U.S. Output Cuts, Russian Annexation of Ukraine Land](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39603-grains-wheat-soars-on-u-s-output-cuts-russian-annexation-of-ukraine-land.md) | -0.2% | -3.6% |
| KWHEAT | 2019-12-11 | [Australian wheat export forecast cut, imports tripled: WASDE - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55534-australian-wheat-export-forecast-cut-imports-tripled-wasde-grain-central.md) | +12.3% | +17.8% |
| KWHEAT | 2021-07-30 | [A new decline in crop forecasts for the US, Canada and Russia continued to raise wheat prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46103-a-new-decline-in-crop-forecasts-for-the-us-canada-and-russia-continued-to-raise.md) | +2.5% | +6.1% |

## Sources

- folitic.com: https://folitic.com/blogs/commodity-news/russia-ukraine-wheat-export-cuts-larger-global-supply

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.