# Palm oil crop in Southeast Asia at risk as El Nino looms

> Palm oil production in Southeast Asia faces growing risk from a probable El Nino later this year, after estates were already hit by a dry spell from mid-January to mid-March. Forecasters expect drier conditions from late May through July, and Bursa Malaysia palm oil futures advanced to RM2,669 a tonne.

- Date: 2026-11-14 · published 2026-11-14T21:13:50.482Z
- Category: weather · region Southeast Asia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/99987-palm-oil-crop-in-southeast-asia-at-risk-as-el-nino-looms
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

El Nino typically curbs rainfall in Indonesia and Malaysia, which together produce 86% of world palm oil, so a yield drop later in 2026 could tighten supply and support palm oil prices.

## Read by commodity

- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2023-08-30 | [From rice to palm oil, Asian crops output forecast lower as El Nino strengthens](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34470-from-rice-to-palm-oil-asian-crops-output-forecast-lower-as-el-nino-strengthens.md) | +0.6% | -3.1% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-09-06 | [From rice to palm oil, crop output forecasts for Asia-Pacific lower as El Nino strengthens \| The Straits Times](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33998-from-rice-to-palm-oil-crop-output-forecasts-for-asia-pacific-lower-as-el-nino.md) | -4.2% | -6.4% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-09-29 | [Indonesian Palm Oil Association sees palm oil prices rising in 2024 as El Nino crimps domestic output](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34219-indonesian-palm-oil-association-sees-palm-oil-prices-rising-in-2024-as-el-nino.md) | -4.5% | -3.5% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-11-23 | [El Nino poses risk to 2024 palm oil output in Indonesia, Malaysia - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33277-el-nino-poses-risk-to-2024-palm-oil-output-in-indonesia-malaysia-the.md) | -0.7% | -3.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-10-22 | [Palm oil prices to stay high next year on Southeast Asia drought](https://feedsoft.ai/events/523-palm-oil-prices-to-stay-high-next-year-on-southeast-asia-drought.md) | -0.4% | — |

## Sources

- theedgemalaysia.com: https://theedgemalaysia.com/article/palm-oil-crop-southeast-asia-risk-el-nino-looms

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.