# Brent Holds $95.84 as IEA Flags First Oil Surplus Since the Iran War Began

> Brent crude settled virtually unchanged at $95.84 a barrel on Friday, while WTI settled at $88.56 after a second straight weekly decline. The International Energy Agency forecast a surplus of about 2 million barrels per day this quarter, the first since the Iran war began, and cut its 2026 demand forecast while raising its supply estimate.

- Date: 2026-11-14 · published 2026-11-14T21:10:11.959Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/99951-brent-holds-95-84-as-iea-flags-first-oil-surplus-since-the-iran-war-began
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [ULSD / Diesel](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DIESEL.md)

## Why it matters

A swing to surplus removes the supply premium built up during the Middle East disruptions, pointing to lower crude and diesel costs that ease feed-production and freight expenses. Lower energy prices also weaken the biofuel-linked pull on vegetable oils.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼
- DIESEL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2025-12-11 | [IEA lowers 2026 oil glut forecast for first time since May \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21664-iea-lowers-2026-oil-glut-forecast-for-first-time-since-may-reuters.md) | -4.0% | +2.5% |
| BRENT | 2017-03-09 | [WTI oil prices fall below $50 for first time since December](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8365-wti-oil-prices-fall-below-50-for-first-time-since-december.md) | -3.7% | +1.3% |
| BRENT | 2025-10-01 | [World oil market to see higher surplus after OPEC+ hike, IEA says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22773-world-oil-market-to-see-higher-surplus-after-opec-hike-iea-says.md) | -2.2% | -5.2% |
| BRENT | 2017-03-08 | [Oil Drops Below $50 for First Time Since December on Supply Glut - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8362-oil-drops-below-50-for-first-time-since-december-on-supply-glut-bloomberg.md) | -9.1% | -3.0% |
| BRENT | 2018-01-31 | [US oil production tops 10 million barrels a day for first time since 1970](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67157-us-oil-production-tops-10-million-barrels-a-day-for-first-time-since-1970.md) | -2.3% | -1.9% |
| WTI | 2022-08-03 | [Oil Falls Below $90 for First Time Since War as Demand Slows - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12800-oil-falls-below-90-for-first-time-since-war-as-demand-slows-bloomberg.md) | -4.1% | -4.5% |
| WTI | 2025-12-11 | [IEA lowers 2026 oil glut forecast for first time since May \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21664-iea-lowers-2026-oil-glut-forecast-for-first-time-since-may-reuters.md) | -4.4% | +0.7% |
| WTI | 2017-03-09 | [WTI oil prices fall below $50 for first time since December](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8365-wti-oil-prices-fall-below-50-for-first-time-since-december.md) | -2.9% | +2.3% |

## Sources

- businesspress.ng: https://businesspress.ng/articles/brent-95-84-iea-first-surplus-iran-war

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.