# Sow Herd Down 13%, Hog Cycle Inflection Point Arrives?

> China's breeding sow inventory fell to 36.02 million head at the end of Q3, down 10.7% year on year and below the 37.5 million regulatory baseline for the first time since the capacity controls began. October newborn piglet numbers also turned negative year on year.

- Date: 2026-11-14 · published 2026-11-14T12:13:58.354Z
- Category: report · region China · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/99371-sow-herd-down-13-hog-cycle-inflection-point-arrives
- Commodities: [Lean Hogs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/HOGS.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Shrinking sow herds and falling piglet numbers point to lower hog supply in about six months, which would eventually support hog prices and increase demand for feed ingredients.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- HOGS: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| HOGS | 2022-09-29 | [US Sept. 1 Hog Inventory Down 1% From Year Ago](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39744-us-sept-1-hog-inventory-down-1-from-year-ago.md) | -0.2% | -1.3% |
| HOGS | 2021-07-13 | [U.S. livestock: Hog futures rise as pork production estimates cut - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46233-u-s-livestock-hog-futures-rise-as-pork-production-estimates-cut-agcanada.md) | -2.4% | -1.8% |
| HOGS | 2021-08-17 | [China's Sow Herd Shrinks in July, First Decline in Almost 2 Years - Pork Business](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45561-china-s-sow-herd-shrinks-in-july-first-decline-in-almost-2-years-pork-business.md) | -3.0% | -11.0% |
| HOGS | 2025-12-18 | [Slow hog slaughter, disease impact Q4 pork production trends](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21673-slow-hog-slaughter-disease-impact-q4-pork-production-trends.md) | +1.6% | +1.8% |
| HOGS | 2025-03-17 | [Livestock Production Cycles Affect Long-Term Price Outlook for Cattle, Hogs, and Chickens \| Economic Research Service](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25713-livestock-production-cycles-affect-long-term-price-outlook-for-cattle-hogs-and.md) | -0.5% | -1.9% |
| SBM | 2020-10-09 | [U.S. Corn and Soybean Production Down from September](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50491-u-s-corn-and-soybean-production-down-from-september.md) | +3.6% | +8.0% |
| SBM | 2018-03-14 | [Argentina soybean production forecast down 13% \| World-grain.com \| March 14, 2018 19:51 \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65848-argentina-soybean-production-forecast-down-13-world-grain-com-march-14-2018-19.md) | -2.8% | +2.1% |
| SBM | 2020-05-08 | [China's Hog Production Growth – A Post-ASF Update – MPOC](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53097-china-s-hog-production-growth-a-post-asf-update-mpoc.md) | +0.6% | +1.9% |

## Sources

- 163.com: https://www.163.com/dy/article/LBNH7KCQ0539IMJ0.html?clickfrom=w_money

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.