# Unstable weather leads government to cut projections for 2026/2027 crop

> Conab released its second survey of the 2026/27 grain crop, estimating total national output at 366.1 million tonnes, down from 367.1 million in the first projection last month. Conab lowered forecasts for rice and wheat, while planted area rises 1.9 million hectares to 85.3 million, though average yield falls 1% to 4,290 kg/ha. Soybean output is projected at 181.6 million tonnes on 49.3 million hectares, with planting 66.8% complete and irregular rains and El Niño heat keeping the sector cautious.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-14T12:10:42.330Z
- Category: report · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/99353-unstable-weather-leads-government-to-cut-projections-for-2026-2027-crop
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

A slightly smaller Brazilian crop, with El Niño-driven rain irregularity threatening soybean and corn yields, tightens the export outlook for soybeans and meal used in feed. Lower wheat and rice estimates add modest support to those feed-grain substitutes.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bullish ▲
- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: neutral
- RICE: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2020-02-20 | [USDA's acreage, price projections for 2020 - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54627-usda-s-acreage-price-projections-for-2020-brownfield-ag-news.md) | -1.8% | -8.0% |
| SOY | 2020-11-10 | [USDA reduces 2020 corn, soybean projections](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12427-usda-reduces-2020-corn-soybean-projections.md) | +4.4% | +3.7% |
| SOY | 2025-05-13 | [May 2025 WASDE - US Corn Production Exceeds Projection from USDA Outlook Forum](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24610-may-2025-wasde-us-corn-production-exceeds-projection-from-usda-outlook-forum.md) | -1.4% | -0.8% |
| SOY | 2023-01-13 | [2022 Final Crop Production Report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13306-2022-final-crop-production-report.md) | -1.5% | +0.8% |
| SOY | 2022-06-10 | [USDA projects larger than expected U.S. winter wheat crop, unexpectedly boosts 2022-23 corn ending stocks - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40894-usda-projects-larger-than-expected-u-s-winter-wheat-crop-unexpectedly-boosts.md) | -3.4% | -7.2% |
| SBM | 2020-11-30 | [Projections for feed prices up sharply: USDA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50233-projections-for-feed-prices-up-sharply-usda.md) | -2.4% | +4.2% |
| SBM | 2022-06-10 | [USDA projects larger than expected U.S. winter wheat crop, unexpectedly boosts 2022-23 corn ending stocks - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40894-usda-projects-larger-than-expected-u-s-winter-wheat-crop-unexpectedly-boosts.md) | +0.3% | +7.6% |
| SBM | 2024-08-13 | [Brazilian crop output reduced by adverse weather](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13555-brazilian-crop-output-reduced-by-adverse-weather.md) | -2.6% | -0.3% |

## Sources

- band.com.br: https://www.band.com.br/agro/clima-instavel-faz-o-governo-reduzir-projecoes-para-a-safra-2026-2027

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.