# November 14 | Oil: IEA sees a fourth-quarter surplus as Brent battles around $96

> The IEA forecast in its November monthly report that the global oil market will move into a fourth-quarter supply surplus as Gulf exports recover. Brent closed at $96.08 on November 13 and WTI at $88.92, both still below their November 6 closes.

- Date: 2026-11-14 · published 2026-11-14T12:08:59.321Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/99333-november-14-oil-iea-sees-a-fourth-quarter-surplus-as-brent-battles-around-96
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

A forecast surplus and crude prices below early-November levels lower energy and transport costs, which can ease pressure on feed ingredient and grain freight prices.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2017-11-01 | [IEA: Warmer weather may tilt oil market into surplus as demand slows](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68145-iea-warmer-weather-may-tilt-oil-market-into-surplus-as-demand-slows.md) | +4.3% | +3.6% |
| BRENT | 2020-04-27 | [U.S. oil plunges 25%, Brent falls below $20 a barrel \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53810-u-s-oil-plunges-25-brent-falls-below-20-a-barrel-reuters.md) | +19.9% | +86.8% |
| BRENT | 2023-08-16 | [Oil settles lower as China fears, rate hikes counter tight US supply](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34769-oil-settles-lower-as-china-fears-rate-hikes-counter-tight-us-supply.md) | -1.4% | +8.5% |
| BRENT | 2025-10-01 | [Oil settles lower as investors brace for possible OPEC+ output hike](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23036-oil-settles-lower-as-investors-brace-for-possible-opec-output-hike.md) | -2.2% | -5.2% |
| BRENT | 2023-08-21 | [Crude oil settles lower as hope fades for Chinese demand](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34761-crude-oil-settles-lower-as-hope-fades-for-chinese-demand.md) | -0.5% | +11.0% |
| WTI | 2017-11-01 | [IEA: Warmer weather may tilt oil market into surplus as demand slows](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68145-iea-warmer-weather-may-tilt-oil-market-into-surplus-as-demand-slows.md) | +5.2% | +5.3% |
| WTI | 2020-04-27 | [U.S. oil plunges 25%, Brent falls below $20 a barrel \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53810-u-s-oil-plunges-25-brent-falls-below-20-a-barrel-reuters.md) | +21.1% | +105.0% |
| WTI | 2023-08-16 | [Oil settles lower as China fears, rate hikes counter tight US supply](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34769-oil-settles-lower-as-china-fears-rate-hikes-counter-tight-us-supply.md) | -0.9% | +9.3% |

## Sources

- goodman-macro.com: https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261114-oil/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.