# Global Milk Production to Contract 0.2% in Q4 2026 as Dairy Supply Tightens, RaboResearch Forecasts

> RaboResearch forecasts that milk output across the Big 7 dairy-exporting regions (US, EU, New Zealand, Australia, Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay) will fall 0.2% year-on-year in Q4 2026, after growth slows to about 0.5% in the second half. The forecast expects EU deliveries to decline from Q4 2026 through Q1 2027, and October 2026 EU farmgate prices averaged €45.12 per 100 kg, down 13.9% year-on-year.

- Date: 2026-11-14 · published 2026-11-14T09:13:15.311Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/99289-global-milk-production-to-contract-0-2-in-q4-2026-as-dairy-supply-tightens
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md), [Nonfat Dry Milk](https://feedsoft.ai/c/NFDM.md)

## Why it matters

A shift from abundant to tightening milk supply reduces global dairy export availability, which should support international dairy prices after more than a year of pressure. Weaker EU farmgate prices are curbing producer investment and herd expansion, which limits how far the supply contraction can go.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bullish ▲
- NFDM: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2026-03-13 | [USDA Raises 2026 Milk Production Forecast, Most Dairy Product Price Forecasts - Cheese Reporter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20167-usda-raises-2026-milk-production-forecast-most-dairy-product-price-forecasts.md) | -0.2% | +5.4% |
| MILK | 2026-04-10 | [USDA Hikes 2026 Milk Production Forecast; Dairy Product Price Forecasts Mixed - Cheese Reporter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19714-usda-hikes-2026-milk-production-forecast-dairy-product-price-forecasts-mixed.md) | -1.1% | +0.1% |
| MILK | 2026-02-12 | [USDA Hikes 2026 Milk Production Forecast, Also Boosts Dairy Product, Milk Price Forecasts - Cheese Reporter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20613-usda-hikes-2026-milk-production-forecast-also-boosts-dairy-product-milk-price.md) | -0.3% | +6.9% |
| MILK | 2022-07-06 | [Dairy production to increase slightly as global supply continues to be constrained - Australasian Farmers' & Dealers' Journal](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40498-dairy-production-to-increase-slightly-as-global-supply-continues-to-be.md) | +2.5% | +1.9% |
| MILK | 2025-01-10 | [USDA Lowers 2025 Milk Production Forecast, Hikes Dairy Product, Milk Price Forecasts - Cheese Reporter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26515-usda-lowers-2025-milk-production-forecast-hikes-dairy-product-milk-price.md) | -0.6% | -1.5% |

## Sources

- dairynews7x7.com: https://dairynews7x7.com/news/global-milk-production-to-contract-0-2-percent

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.