# El Nino Threatens Palm Oil Output, CPO Prices Could Surge in 2027

> Julian McGill of Glenauk Economics projects crude palm oil prices rising to 5,000 ringgit per ton by mid-2027. He cited El Niño, lower Indonesian production and falling Malaysian stocks as drivers, and said the drought's effect on output should appear around Q1 2027 after an 8 to 10 month lag.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-14T09:06:33.038Z
- Category: weather · region Indonesia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/99228-el-nino-threatens-palm-oil-output-cpo-prices-could-surge-in-2027
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

A drought-driven output decline in 2027 would tighten global vegetable oil supply, pointing to higher palm oil prices after the year's volatility.

## Read by commodity

- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2026-10-01 | [El Niño Set to Crimp Palm Oil Output in 2027, Squeezing Supply](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17546-el-nino-set-to-crimp-palm-oil-output-in-2027-squeezing-supply.md) | -5.8% | -3.8% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-09-29 | [Indonesian Palm Oil Association sees palm oil prices rising in 2024 as El Nino crimps domestic output](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34219-indonesian-palm-oil-association-sees-palm-oil-prices-rising-in-2024-as-el-nino.md) | -4.5% | -3.5% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-04-29 | [Indonesia 2026 crude palm oil output to fall due to El Nino, high fertiliser prices, association says \| The Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19818-indonesia-2026-crude-palm-oil-output-to-fall-due-to-el-nino-high-fertiliser.md) | +2.8% | -1.1% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-11-23 | [El Nino poses risk to 2024 palm oil output in Indonesia, Malaysia - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33277-el-nino-poses-risk-to-2024-palm-oil-output-in-indonesia-malaysia-the.md) | -0.7% | -3.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-08-30 | [From rice to palm oil, Asian crops output forecast lower as El Nino strengthens](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34470-from-rice-to-palm-oil-asian-crops-output-forecast-lower-as-el-nino-strengthens.md) | +0.6% | -3.1% |

## Sources

- money.kompas.com: https://money.kompas.com/read/2026/11/13/174658126/el-nino-ancam-produksi-sawit-harga-cpo-berpotensi-melonjak-pada-2027

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.