# IBGE forecasts 2027 harvest decline, but Paraná expects bigger soybean crop despite climate risks

> IBGE projects Brazil's 2027 grain output will fall 2.6% to 346.6 million tonnes, about 9.2 million tonnes below its 2026 estimate. Conab, by contrast, expects growth in the 2026/27 crop year, and the two agencies use different reference periods. Paraná expects a larger soybean crop despite delayed planting, wheat losses and climate risks.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-14T03:10:45.769Z
- Category: report · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/98917-ibge-forecasts-2027-harvest-decline-but-parana-expects-bigger-soybean-crop
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

The divergence between official forecasts adds uncertainty to Brazil's supply outlook for corn and soybeans. A smaller 2027 crop would support feed grain and soymeal prices, while Paraná's larger soy expectation offsets part of that.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2021-02-03 | [Brazilian crop prospects improve but bean harvest delayed \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48468-brazilian-crop-prospects-improve-but-bean-harvest-delayed-farm-online-act.md) | +0.3% | -1.8% |
| CORN | 2025-03-14 | [Brazil raises record crop forecast despite drought in Rio Grande do Sul](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13508-brazil-raises-record-crop-forecast-despite-drought-in-rio-grande-do-sul.md) | +6.8% | +5.7% |
| CORN | 2021-11-10 | [PF Report Reaction: USDA unexpectedly trims its soybean crop estimate - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13412-pf-report-reaction-usda-unexpectedly-trims-its-soybean-crop-estimate-pro-farmer.md) | +0.3% | +4.6% |
| CORN | 2022-09-30 | [UPDATE 1-U.S. Wheat Harvest Falls Below Forecasts; Prices Rally](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39630-update-1-u-s-wheat-harvest-falls-below-forecasts-prices-rally.md) | +1.0% | +3.8% |
| CORN | 2024-10-16 | [France trims soft wheat crop estimate, raises maize forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27790-france-trims-soft-wheat-crop-estimate-raises-maize-forecast.md) | +2.5% | +3.9% |
| SOY | 2024-05-13 | [Soybean commentary: Futures rebound despite higher USDA stocks forecast - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13925-soybean-commentary-futures-rebound-despite-higher-usda-stocks-forecast.md) | +1.9% | -1.4% |
| SOY | 2024-05-10 | [USDA Forecasts 14.86 BB Corn Crop, 4.45 BB Soybean Crop](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13186-usda-forecasts-14-86-bb-corn-crop-4-45-bb-soybean-crop.md) | +2.0% | -1.1% |
| SOY | 2018-11-08 | [IBGE: harvest estimate for next year is 0.2% smaller than in 2018 \| News Agency](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61885-ibge-harvest-estimate-for-next-year-is-0-2-smaller-than-in-2018-news-agency.md) | +0.3% | +5.6% |

## Sources

- gazetadoparana.com.br: https://gazetadoparana.com.br/publico/ibge-preve-queda-na-safra-de-2027-mas-parana-espera-colher-mais-soja-apesar-dos-riscos-climaticos

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.