# Brazil starts 2026/27 crop under strong El Niño, with challenging climate forecasts

> Conab estimates Brazil's 2026/27 grain output at 367.1 million tonnes, including 181.6 million tonnes of soybeans and 148 million tonnes of corn. NOAA reports the Niño-3.4 index at 2.5 °C above average, with a greater than 79% chance the event stays strong into early 2027. The outlook calls for above-average rain in the South and drought in the North and Northeast.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-14T03:10:45.611Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/98915-brazil-starts-2026-27-crop-under-strong-el-nino-with-challenging-climate
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Drought risk in the North and Northeast could delay corn and bean output in MATOPIBA, while excess rain in the South threatens wheat harvest and soybean planting. Any shortfall would tighten feed grain and soymeal supplies and support prices.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2023-09-01 | [Global El Niño forecasts predict a Very Strong event for 2023/24](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34476-global-el-nino-forecasts-predict-a-very-strong-event-for-2023-24.md) | -0.8% | -6.2% |
| SOY | 2017-03-29 | [Study Reveals Farming Becoming Riskier Under Climate Change- Crop Biotech Update (March 29, 2017) \| Crop Biotech Update - ISAAA.org](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71831-study-reveals-farming-becoming-riskier-under-climate-change-crop-biotech-update.md) | -3.5% | -2.7% |
| SOY | 2025-01-14 | [Brazil’s corn crop forecast lowered to 122.3 mln tons](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13520-brazil-s-corn-crop-forecast-lowered-to-122-3-mln-tons.md) | +2.5% | +0.2% |
| SOY | 2018-07-27 | [Look South, ENSO Forecasters! \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63937-look-south-enso-forecasters-noaa-climate-gov.md) | +2.5% | -2.2% |
| SOY | 2020-05-14 | [U.S. forecaster sees 65% chance for no El Nino, La Nina during summer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53048-u-s-forecaster-sees-65-chance-for-no-el-nino-la-nina-during-summer.md) | +1.3% | +3.6% |
| CORN | 2025-08-07 | [2025/26 Corn Planting in Brazil to Start Within Weeks](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13478-2025-26-corn-planting-in-brazil-to-start-within-weeks.md) | -1.1% | +3.9% |
| CORN | 2018-09-27 | [Brazil crop update - Morning Ag Clips](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62863-brazil-crop-update-morning-ag-clips.md) | -0.5% | -0.3% |
| CORN | 2018-07-27 | [Look South, ENSO Forecasters! \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63937-look-south-enso-forecasters-noaa-climate-gov.md) | +0.9% | -1.9% |

## Sources

- boca.com.br: https://boca.com.br/agronegocio/brasil-inicia-safra-2026-27-sob-forte-el-nino

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.