# Bread wheat supply is tight in the South while Chicago falls and Argentina raises its crop forecast

> Mills in Rio Grande do Sul are offering R$1,400 per tonne, but rain has damaged grain quality, leaving only about 150,000 tonnes of milling-grade wheat. Argentina raised its 2026/27 wheat production estimate to 24.3 million tonnes, and Chicago wheat fell more than 2% on November 12 on a stronger dollar and profit-taking.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-14T00:16:33.973Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/98644-bread-wheat-supply-is-tight-in-the-south-while-chicago-falls-and-argentina
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Quality losses keep Brazilian milling supply tight even as global prices fall, while a larger Argentine crop adds export competition and caps international wheat prices.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2024-05-17 | [Forecasts of a good wheat harvest in the US and the EU continue to lower stock prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10908-forecasts-of-a-good-wheat-harvest-in-the-us-and-the-eu-continue-to-lower-stock.md) | +19.4% | +8.4% |
| WHEAT | 2025-08-05 | [Wheat crop estimates for 2025/26 surge after rains throughout NSW \| The Land \| NSW](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23273-wheat-crop-estimates-for-2025-26-surge-after-rains-throughout-nsw-the-land-nsw.md) | -0.8% | +0.7% |
| WHEAT | 2026-06-02 | [Chicago grain falls as US weather lifts crop outlook - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10648-chicago-grain-falls-as-us-weather-lifts-crop-outlook-markets-business-recorder.md) | -1.3% | +0.7% |
| WHEAT | 2025-03-25 | [Wheat prices fall amid increased rainfall in the US, Ukraine and Russia, which increases pressure on prices in Ukraine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25622-wheat-prices-fall-amid-increased-rainfall-in-the-us-ukraine-and-russia-which.md) | -1.9% | +1.7% |
| WHEAT | 2021-01-20 | [Soybeans down for third session on South America rains; wheat, corn fall - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8238-soybeans-down-for-third-session-on-south-america-rains-wheat-corn-fall-markets.md) | +4.0% | +2.6% |

## Sources

- portaldoagronegocio.com.br: https://www.portaldoagronegocio.com.br/agricultura/aveia-trigo-e-cevada/noticias/trigo-panificavel-tem-oferta-restrita-no-sul-enquanto-chicago-cai-e-argentina-amplia-previsao-de-safra

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.