# El Niño 2026 and the ONI and RONI indices

> NOAA's Climate Prediction Center recorded El Niño strengthening on 12 November, with Niño-3.4 at 2.5 °C above average. It cut the chance of an event stronger than any since 1950 to about 60%, down from 83% a month earlier, and explained the difference from the RONI index that NOAA adopted in February 2026.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-14T00:13:25.968Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/98619-el-nino-2026-and-the-oni-and-roni-indices
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A lower probability of an extreme event reduces the likelihood of the most severe South American and Asian crop losses, easing some weather-driven price premium, though El Niño still threatens key crops.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2023-06-01 | [May 2023 ENSO update: El Niño knocking on the door](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35865-may-2023-enso-update-el-nino-knocking-on-the-door.md) | +4.7% | +14.1% |
| SOY | 2023-06-08 | [Hello, El Niño – What To Expect for the 2023 Crop - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35411-hello-el-nino-what-to-expect-for-the-2023-crop-agweb.md) | +2.0% | +9.2% |
| SOY | 2023-02-01 | [January 2023 La Niña update, and the ENSO Blog investigates, part 2](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37699-january-2023-la-nina-update-and-the-enso-blog-investigates-part-2.md) | -1.5% | -2.2% |
| SOY | 2017-03-01 | [Return of El Niño \| RNZ](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71914-return-of-el-nino-rnz.md) | -1.0% | -5.2% |
| SOY | 2017-07-12 | [El Niño Outlook for July 2017](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69876-el-nino-outlook-for-july-2017.md) | -3.5% | -6.1% |
| CORN | 2025-09-08 | [The El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Drought Outlook in the United States \| September 8, 2025 \| Drought.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22788-the-el-nino-southern-oscillation-and-drought-outlook-in-the-united-states.md) | -0.1% | +2.7% |
| CORN | 2023-06-08 | [Hello, El Niño – What To Expect for the 2023 Crop - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35411-hello-el-nino-what-to-expect-for-the-2023-crop-agweb.md) | +3.5% | -3.5% |
| CORN | 2023-02-01 | [January 2023 La Niña update, and the ENSO Blog investigates, part 2](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37699-january-2023-la-nina-update-and-the-enso-blog-investigates-part-2.md) | +1.2% | -4.9% |

## Sources

- wikifarmer.com: https://wikifarmer.com/library/en/article/el-nino-2026-oni-roni-indices

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.