# Can grain stocks absorb the 2026 El Niño

> The FAO-AMIS November monitor forecasts record world wheat stocks of 360.6 million tonnes and maize stocks of 328.8 million tonnes for 2026/27, while rice stocks fall to 216.5 million tonnes. Wheat trade for July 2026 to June 2027 is forecast at 193.2 million tonnes, below the previous season, due to Black Sea transport problems.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-14T00:13:25.899Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/98618-can-grain-stocks-absorb-the-2026-el-nino
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

Ample wheat and maize stocks cushion El Niño weather risks and cap price gains, while tighter rice stocks and lower Black Sea wheat shipments point to firmer rice and some wheat export pricing.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: neutral
- RICE: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2023-04-23 | [AAFC raises canola stocks projections - Grainews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36359-aafc-raises-canola-stocks-projections-grainews.md) | -8.3% | -10.0% |
| WHEAT | 2020-10-08 | [Northwest Grain Stocks report - Morning Ag Clips](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50719-northwest-grain-stocks-report-morning-ag-clips.md) | +0.0% | -0.6% |
| WHEAT | 2021-06-11 | [WASDE Slashes Corn Ending Stocks \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46506-wasde-slashes-corn-ending-stocks-feed-and-grain.md) | +5.0% | -5.4% |
| WHEAT | 2021-06-10 | [Corn stocks cut in USDA WASDE report - Grainews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46509-corn-stocks-cut-in-usda-wasde-report-grainews.md) | +5.7% | -5.3% |
| WHEAT | 2020-11-06 | [India’s rice production on the rise \| 2020-11-06  \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50116-india-s-rice-production-on-the-rise-2020-11-06-world-grain.md) | +0.0% | -6.3% |
| CORN | 2022-03-10 | [Robust demand keeps grain stocks tight amid Black Sea export cuts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12633-robust-demand-keeps-grain-stocks-tight-amid-black-sea-export-cuts.md) | +2.5% | +11.8% |
| CORN | 2021-07-12 | [Grain Stocks Surprise Traders in the July WASDE Report \| Red River Farm Network](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46000-grain-stocks-surprise-traders-in-the-july-wasde-report-red-river-farm-network.md) | -6.7% | -7.2% |
| CORN | 2025-03-14 | [USDA 'kicks the can' on corn, soy stock figures amid uncertain trade policy \| Feed Strategy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25516-usda-kicks-the-can-on-corn-soy-stock-figures-amid-uncertain-trade-policy-feed.md) | +6.8% | +5.7% |

## Sources

- wikifarmer.com: https://wikifarmer.com/library/en/article/el-nino-grain-stocks-2026

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.