# IEA forecasts global oil surplus as OPEC+ output rebounds

> The IEA projects a global oil surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter as Middle East exports recover faster than demand. It also said member countries will release 71 million barrels from emergency reserves through February, including 15 million barrels of diesel.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-14T00:13:14.167Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/98613-iea-forecasts-global-oil-surplus-as-opec-output-rebounds
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [ULSD / Diesel](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DIESEL.md)

## Why it matters

A projected surplus and emergency stock releases point to easing crude and diesel tightness, which lowers energy and transport costs for feed supply chains. Brent slipped after the report.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼
- DIESEL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2024-11-04 | [OPEC oil output rises in October as Libyan supply rebounds, survey finds \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27304-opec-oil-output-rises-in-october-as-libyan-supply-rebounds-survey-finds-reuters.md) | +0.8% | +0.2% |
| BRENT | 2025-04-14 | [OPEC cuts global oil demand growth forecasts, citing US tariffs](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25325-opec-cuts-global-oil-demand-growth-forecasts-citing-us-tariffs.md) | +3.0% | -1.0% |
| BRENT | 2023-08-31 | [OPEC oil output rises in August as Iran hits 2018 high, Reuters survey finds \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34490-opec-oil-output-rises-in-august-as-iran-hits-2018-high-reuters-survey-finds.md) | +5.7% | +12.3% |
| BRENT | 2019-08-16 | [OPEC sees bearish oil outlook for rest of 2019, points to 2020 surplus](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57507-opec-sees-bearish-oil-outlook-for-rest-of-2019-points-to-2020-surplus.md) | +3.6% | +4.8% |
| BRENT | 2018-03-09 | [Opec forecasts balanced oil market by 2026](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65937-opec-forecasts-balanced-oil-market-by-2026.md) | +1.0% | +4.8% |
| WTI | 2024-11-04 | [OPEC oil output rises in October as Libyan supply rebounds, survey finds \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27304-opec-oil-output-rises-in-october-as-libyan-supply-rebounds-survey-finds-reuters.md) | +1.3% | -2.1% |
| WTI | 2025-04-14 | [OPEC cuts global oil demand growth forecasts, citing US tariffs](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25325-opec-cuts-global-oil-demand-growth-forecasts-citing-us-tariffs.md) | +2.5% | +1.8% |
| WTI | 2023-08-31 | [OPEC oil output rises in August as Iran hits 2018 high, Reuters survey finds \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34490-opec-oil-output-rises-in-august-as-iran-hits-2018-high-reuters-survey-finds.md) | +6.4% | +12.3% |

## Sources

- finance-commerce.com: https://finance-commerce.com/2026/11/iea-global-oil-surplus-opec-output-recovery/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.