# First forecast points to 2.6% drop in 2027 harvest, totaling 346.6 million tonnes

> IBGE's first 2027 crop forecast projects Brazil's grain harvest at 346.6 million tonnes, down 2.6% year on year. Soybean output is projected at 173.9 million tonnes, down 0.6%, with strong El Niño effects and higher input costs cited as pressures.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-14T00:11:56.575Z
- Category: report · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/98606-first-forecast-points-to-2-6-drop-in-2027-harvest-totaling-346-6-million-tonnes
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

A projected decline in Brazil's grain and soybean output tightens export availability, supporting soybean meal and corn prices if the El Niño impact materializes.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bullish ▲
- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2019-07-11 | [Estimates for 2019 harvest increase, hit 236 million tonnes \| News Agency](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57935-estimates-for-2019-harvest-increase-hit-236-million-tonnes-news-agency.md) | -1.2% | -5.0% |
| SOY | 2021-10-07 | [September´s estimate expects harvest of 250.9 million tonnes in 2021 \| News Agency](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44375-september-s-estimate-expects-harvest-of-250-9-million-tonnes-in-2021-news-agency.md) | -3.8% | -0.8% |
| SOY | 2019-03-12 | [Grain harvest should grow 1% and reach 228.8 million tonnes in 2019 \| News Agency](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59927-grain-harvest-should-grow-1-and-reach-228-8-million-tonnes-in-2019-news-agency.md) | +3.2% | +2.4% |
| SOY | 2022-06-01 | [SECOND CORN CROP FORECAST AT 16 MILLION TONS IN PARANA – WILLIAMS SERVIÇOS MARÍTIMOS LTDA.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13717-second-corn-crop-forecast-at-16-million-tons-in-parana-williams-servicos.md) | +2.7% | -0.5% |
| SOY | 2019-08-08 | [Estimates point to record harvest, pushed by corn production, in 2019 \| News Agency](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57421-estimates-point-to-record-harvest-pushed-by-corn-production-in-2019-news-agency.md) | +1.4% | +0.1% |
| CORN | 2021-10-07 | [September´s estimate expects harvest of 250.9 million tonnes in 2021 \| News Agency](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44375-september-s-estimate-expects-harvest-of-250-9-million-tonnes-in-2021-news-agency.md) | -2.7% | +6.7% |
| CORN | 2019-03-13 | [India forecast to harvest record rice crop \| 2019-03-13  \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60050-india-forecast-to-harvest-record-rice-crop-2019-03-13-world-grain.md) | +4.3% | -1.0% |
| CORN | 2025-08-11 | [France raises wheat harvest forecast but expects corn production to decline](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23272-france-raises-wheat-harvest-forecast-but-expects-corn-production-to-decline.md) | -0.0% | +3.7% |

## Sources

- agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br: https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/agencia-noticias/2012-agencia-de-noticias/noticias/48609-primeiro-prognostico-indica-queda-de-2-6-na-safra-de-2027-totalizando-r-346-6-milhoes-de-toneladas

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.