# Global oil supplies are suddenly flowing. Why a crude glut won't mean cheaper diesel.

> The International Energy Agency expects global oil supply to exceed demand in the fourth quarter, forecasting 105 million barrels per day of supply against 103.3 million of demand. That would be a surplus of about 1.7 million barrels per day, compared with an estimated deficit in the third quarter. Analysts note the surplus depends on OPEC flows normalizing, which remains uncertain amid the Iran war.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-14T00:09:54.398Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/98573-global-oil-supplies-are-suddenly-flowing-why-a-crude-glut-won-t-mean-cheaper
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [ULSD / Diesel](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DIESEL.md)

## Why it matters

A crude surplus pushes oil benchmarks lower, but tight diesel supply and inefficiencies mean refined fuel costs may not fall as much. Feed buyers face limited relief on freight and processing energy costs.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼
- DIESEL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI | 2018-02-12 | [OPEC hikes 2018 forecast for oil supply growth on a flood of US crude](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66425-opec-hikes-2018-forecast-for-oil-supply-growth-on-a-flood-of-us-crude.md) | +4.4% | +3.6% |
| WTI | 2019-02-12 | [OPEC Sees Weaker Demand for Its Crude as US Oil Supply Thrives - TT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60519-opec-sees-weaker-demand-for-its-crude-as-us-oil-supply-thrives-tt.md) | +6.0% | +8.3% |
| WTI | 2020-01-16 | [IEA sees well-supplied oil market despite slower shale growth \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54972-iea-sees-well-supplied-oil-market-despite-slower-shale-growth-s-and-p-global.md) | -4.0% | -11.1% |
| WTI | 2019-06-05 | [U.S. oil prices enter a bear market as weekly domestic crude supplies jump to a nearly 2-year high - MarketWatch](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11592-u-s-oil-prices-enter-a-bear-market-as-weekly-domestic-crude-supplies-jump-to-a.md) | -0.4% | +4.8% |
| WTI | 2018-09-23 | [OPEC raises U.S. oil supply outlook, sees lower demand for own crude](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62935-opec-raises-u-s-oil-supply-outlook-sees-lower-demand-for-own-crude.md) | +3.4% | -2.3% |
| BRENT | 2018-02-12 | [OPEC hikes 2018 forecast for oil supply growth on a flood of US crude](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66425-opec-hikes-2018-forecast-for-oil-supply-growth-on-a-flood-of-us-crude.md) | +2.6% | +3.9% |
| BRENT | 2020-01-16 | [IEA sees well-supplied oil market despite slower shale growth \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54972-iea-sees-well-supplied-oil-market-despite-slower-shale-growth-s-and-p-global.md) | -1.5% | -12.5% |
| BRENT | 2019-02-12 | [OPEC Sees Weaker Demand for Its Crude as US Oil Supply Thrives - TT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60519-opec-sees-weaker-demand-for-its-crude-as-us-oil-supply-thrives-tt.md) | +8.0% | +7.2% |

## Sources

- morningstar.com: https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20261113322/global-oil-supplies-are-suddenly-flowing-why-a-crude-glut-wont-mean-cheaper-diesel

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.