# El Niño's Strongest Phase Yet: Crop Risks and Market Pressures

> NOAA reports a strong-to-very strong El Niño is likely through January-March 2027, with a probability above 79%. Sea surface temperatures in the key monitoring region were 2.5°C above average in October, and the agency sees a 60% chance of a historic event stronger than any since 1950.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-14T00:06:21.995Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/98535-el-nino-s-strongest-phase-yet-crop-risks-and-market-pressures
- Commodities: [Fishmeal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/FISHMEAL.md), [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

El Niño cuts Peruvian anchovy catches, which tightens fishmeal supply, and threatens Asian rice and palm oil output, supporting prices for those commodities.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲
- FISHMEAL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2023-05-15 | [Rice markets in South and Southeast Asia face stresses from El Niño, export restrictions \| IFPRI](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35867-rice-markets-in-south-and-southeast-asia-face-stresses-from-el-nino-export.md) | -6.6% | +7.6% |
| RICE | 2026-04-09 | [Rising Odds of Strong El Niño Point to Global Weather and Crop Impacts - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19631-rising-odds-of-strong-el-nino-point-to-global-weather-and-crop-impacts-bloomberg.md) | -1.4% | +6.9% |
| RICE | 2023-10-11 | [Asia Rice Market Braces for More Stress From El Niño After Export Curbs - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33694-asia-rice-market-braces-for-more-stress-from-el-nino-after-export-curbs.md) | -0.1% | +2.8% |
| RICE | 2026-04-24 | [Forecast for strong El Niño fans worries about global crops](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19633-forecast-for-strong-el-nino-fans-worries-about-global-crops.md) | -2.0% | +18.1% |
| RICE | 2023-04-17 | [DA assures stable rice supply amid El Niño threat](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36490-da-assures-stable-rice-supply-amid-el-nino-threat.md) | -2.7% | +5.1% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-04-24 | [Forecast for strong El Niño fans worries about global crops](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19633-forecast-for-strong-el-nino-fans-worries-about-global-crops.md) | -0.0% | -1.4% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-08-01 | [El Niño 2026: Converging Pressures on Vegetable Oil Markets - Center for Commercial Agriculture](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18245-el-nino-2026-converging-pressures-on-vegetable-oil-markets-center-for.md) | +2.0% | +4.5% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-06-02 | [Palm ends 3% higher on stronger rivals, El Nino worries - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7324-palm-ends-3-higher-on-stronger-rivals-el-nino-worries-markets-business-recorder.md) | -0.1% | +7.1% |

## Sources

- theinvestfeed.com: https://theinvestfeed.com/article/el-nino-s-strongest-phase-yet-crop-risks-and-market-pressures

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.