# RaboResearch: Seven leading dairy-exporting regions face 0.2% output decline in Q4 2026

> RaboResearch forecasts a 0.2% year-on-year contraction in combined milk production across seven leading dairy-exporting regions in Q4 2026, with stability in the first half of 2027. It expects lower European milk deliveries to be offset by US expansion and record New Zealand output, with milk powder prices expected to hold up better than butter.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-13T21:15:14.282Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/98509-raboresearch-seven-leading-dairy-exporting-regions-face-0-2-output-decline-in
- Commodities: [Nonfat Dry Milk](https://feedsoft.ai/c/NFDM.md), [Dry Whey](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEY.md), [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

A slight supply contraction after a year of abundant exportable supply could gradually rebalance the market, supporting powder prices more than butter prices. Buyers of dairy-based feed ingredients such as whey and milk powders should watch for firmer powder pricing.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: neutral
- NFDM: bullish ▲
- WHEY: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2022-02-15 | [Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: February 2022 \| Economic Research Service](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42651-livestock-dairy-and-poultry-outlook-february-2022-economic-research-service.md) | +0.3% | +7.4% |
| MILK | 2022-07-18 | [Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: July 2022 \| Economic Research Service](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40433-livestock-dairy-and-poultry-outlook-july-2022-economic-research-service.md) | +0.0% | -10.5% |
| MILK | 2022-09-16 | [Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: September 2022 \| Economic Research Service](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39527-livestock-dairy-and-poultry-outlook-september-2022-economic-research-service.md) | +0.2% | +10.4% |
| MILK | 2019-02-14 | [Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: February 2019 \| Economic Research Service](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60540-livestock-dairy-and-poultry-outlook-february-2019-economic-research-service.md) | -0.1% | +6.7% |
| MILK | 2025-01-06 | [USDA Dairy Production Report: Surprising Trends in Cheese, Butter, and Milk Output for November 2024 \| The Bullvine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26522-usda-dairy-production-report-surprising-trends-in-cheese-butter-and-milk-output.md) | -1.3% | -0.4% |

## Sources

- dairynews.today: https://dairynews.today/news/raboresearch_siete_regiones_exportadoras_reducir_n_un_0_2_su_producci_n_l_ctea_al_finalizar_2026_6385174.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.