# Trade tensions and El Niño shape farmer outlooks

> Purdue's Ag Economy Barometer found US farmer optimism edged up, but the share of producers reporting a strong balance sheet fell from 76% in January to 60% in October. McKinsey reports US net cash farm income in 2026 is roughly flat with 2025, while direct government payments rose from $28 billion to $47 billion.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-13T21:13:16.376Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/98497-trade-tensions-and-el-nino-shape-farmer-outlooks
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Heavy reliance on government payments and trade policy uncertainty could shape US farm spending and planting decisions into 2027, affecting feed grain demand outlooks. The article offers no new supply shock, so the direct price impact is limited.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2019-05-06 | [Trade tensions, prices weigh on farm decisions - Texas Farm Bureau](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59152-trade-tensions-prices-weigh-on-farm-decisions-texas-farm-bureau.md) | -3.2% | +10.5% |
| CORN | 2023-01-10 | [Trade and Trade Policy Outlook 2023 - Purdue Ag Econ Report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37715-trade-and-trade-policy-outlook-2023-purdue-ag-econ-report.md) | +1.9% | +2.6% |
| CORN | 2020-11-23 | [Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade - WITA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50016-outlook-for-u-s-agricultural-trade-wita.md) | -1.2% | -3.2% |
| CORN | 2019-09-30 | [Corn and Soybean Stocks Come In Below Trade Expectations \| Red River Farm Network](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57013-corn-and-soybean-stocks-come-in-below-trade-expectations-red-river-farm-network.md) | -0.9% | +1.1% |
| CORN | 2017-01-01 | [U.S. Farm Income and Financial Outlook for 2017](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72979-u-s-farm-income-and-financial-outlook-for-2017.md) | +0.3% | +2.3% |
| SOY | 2019-05-06 | [Trade tensions, prices weigh on farm decisions - Texas Farm Bureau](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59152-trade-tensions-prices-weigh-on-farm-decisions-texas-farm-bureau.md) | -3.9% | +6.0% |
| SOY | 2020-11-23 | [Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade - WITA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50016-outlook-for-u-s-agricultural-trade-wita.md) | -1.1% | +5.3% |
| SOY | 2019-09-30 | [Corn and Soybean Stocks Come In Below Trade Expectations \| Red River Farm Network](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57013-corn-and-soybean-stocks-come-in-below-trade-expectations-red-river-farm-network.md) | +3.8% | +4.2% |

## Sources

- agfundernews.com: https://agfundernews.com/trade-tensions-el-nino-and-other-forces-could-make-or-break-agtech-adoption-in-2027

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.