# Russia oil output rises as IEA sees global surplus

> The IEA reported Russian crude output rose 210,000 barrels per day to 8.73 million in October. Global supply reached 105.4 million barrels per day, pushing the market into surplus for the first time since the Iran war began, while diesel supply stayed constrained by attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-13T21:13:05.142Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/98493-russia-oil-output-rises-as-iea-sees-global-surplus
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [ULSD / Diesel](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DIESEL.md)

## Why it matters

A return to crude surplus is bearish for crude prices, but tight diesel supply keeps distillate costs elevated for feed transport and farm operations. The split between crude and diesel markets matters for fuel cost planning.

## Read by commodity

- BRENT: bearish ▼
- DIESEL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2023-12-07 | [Oil market caught by surprise as US output surges](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32889-oil-market-caught-by-surprise-as-us-output-surges.md) | -0.2% | +5.7% |
| BRENT | 2023-03-14 | [OPEC sees improved Chinese oil demand more than offset by resilient Russian output \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36772-opec-sees-improved-chinese-oil-demand-more-than-offset-by-resilient-russian.md) | -8.9% | +7.8% |
| BRENT | 2018-01-19 | [IEA Sees ‘Explosive’ Growth in U.S. Oil Output as Prices Rally - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67147-iea-sees-explosive-growth-in-u-s-oil-output-as-prices-rally-bloomberg.md) | +2.0% | -8.4% |
| BRENT | 2023-08-31 | [OPEC oil output rises in August as Iran hits 2018 high, Reuters survey finds \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34490-opec-oil-output-rises-in-august-as-iran-hits-2018-high-reuters-survey-finds.md) | +5.7% | +12.3% |
| BRENT | 2017-09-29 | [OPEC oil output rises by 50,000 bpd in September - Reuters survey](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68863-opec-oil-output-rises-by-50-000-bpd-in-september-reuters-survey.md) | -1.8% | +1.6% |
| DIESEL | 2022-03-11 | [Global diesel shortage raises risk of oil price spike](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4721-global-diesel-shortage-raises-risk-of-oil-price-spike.md) | +5.0% | +1.3% |
| DIESEL | 2018-03-09 | [Global diesel supplies to remain tight until 2027, warns IEA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66209-global-diesel-supplies-to-remain-tight-until-2027-warns-iea.md) | +1.8% | +5.3% |
| DIESEL | 2022-09-28 | [Oil prices rise on surprise drop in U.S. crude, fuel stocks](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39763-oil-prices-rise-on-surprise-drop-in-u-s-crude-fuel-stocks.md) | +10.2% | +25.9% |

## Sources

- cnbc.com: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/13/russia-oil-exports-iea-diesel-deal.html

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.