# Very strong El Niño and 2026/27 crop: what the producer should decide now

> A GERAÇÃO IEA/USP researcher urges Brazilian farmers to plan planting for the extreme El Niño scenario before the phenomenon peaks. NOAA reported on November 12 that the Niño-3.4 index reached 2.5°C above average, with over 79% odds the event stays strong or very strong through January–March 2027. Conab's October estimate for the 2026/27 harvest is 367.1 million tonnes of grain, including up to 181.6 million tonnes of soybeans and 148 million tonnes of corn.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-13T21:11:44.053Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/98483-very-strong-el-nino-and-2026-27-crop-what-the-producer-should-decide-now
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

A strong El Niño raises the risk of drought or irregular rain in Brazil's summer crops, which could tighten soybean and corn supplies and support meal and feed grain prices. Early planning by farmers reduces the chance of a sudden supply shock.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bullish ▲
- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2026-09-04 | [Will a ‘Super’ El Niño Impact the Weather and Food Production in 2026? - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17398-will-a-super-el-nino-impact-the-weather-and-food-production-in-2026-bloomberg.md) | -2.0% | -2.1% |
| SOY | 2026-04-09 | [Rising Odds of Strong El Niño Point to Global Weather and Crop Impacts - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19631-rising-odds-of-strong-el-nino-point-to-global-weather-and-crop-impacts-bloomberg.md) | +0.4% | +1.5% |
| SOY | 2026-05-21 | [What a Possible 2026/27 Super El Niño Means for Commodity Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19191-what-a-possible-2026-27-super-el-nino-means-for-commodity-markets.md) | -0.4% | -6.4% |
| SOY | 2026-10-14 | [El Niño and Brazil’s Second-Season Corn: Should We Be Concerned?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13413-el-nino-and-brazil-s-second-season-corn-should-we-be-concerned.md) | -2.3% | — |
| SOY | 2017-07-27 | [Crop futures higher Thurs. on dry weather \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70067-crop-futures-higher-thurs-on-dry-weather-the-western-producer.md) | -2.3% | -5.4% |
| CORN | 2026-09-04 | [Will a ‘Super’ El Niño Impact the Weather and Food Production in 2026? - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17398-will-a-super-el-nino-impact-the-weather-and-food-production-in-2026-bloomberg.md) | +0.5% | +1.9% |
| CORN | 2026-09-29 | [El Niño 2026/27: the signals SA farmers should look out for](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17401-el-nino-2026-27-the-signals-sa-farmers-should-look-out-for.md) | -4.3% | -8.8% |
| CORN | 2021-09-02 | [Exports to drop as crop shrinks \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45047-exports-to-drop-as-crop-shrinks-the-western-producer.md) | -3.0% | -5.5% |

## Sources

- globorural.globo.com: https://globorural.globo.com/conteudo-de-marca/pulse-brand/noticia/2026/11/el-nino-muito-forte-e-safra-202627-o-que-o-produtor-deve-decidir-agora-1.ghtml

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.