# Grain markets react to unexpected USDA stocks data

> USDA's September quarterly stocks report showed old-crop corn stocks of 1.53 billion bushels, above the average trade guess of 1.337 billion. Wheat stocks also exceeded expectations, while soybean stocks of 316 million bushels were modestly below estimates.

- Date: 2025-09-30 · published 2025-09-30T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/9840-grain-markets-react-to-unexpected-usda-stocks-data
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

A corn stocks surprise of this size signals more supply than the market priced in, weighing on corn and wheat prices. Tighter soybean stocks offer limited support.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bearish ▼
- WHEAT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2019-03-29 | [U.S. March Soybean Stocks Hit Record High, USDA Data Drops Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60042-u-s-march-soybean-stocks-hit-record-high-usda-data-drops-markets.md) | -2.3% | -4.0% |
| CORN | 2022-07-12 | [USDA Reports Cause Grain, Soybean Markets to Continue to Plunge](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4307-usda-reports-cause-grain-soybean-markets-to-continue-to-plunge.md) | -13.6% | -16.3% |
| CORN | 2026-01-12 | [Dec. 1 Grain Stocks Top Expectati... \| Syngenta CA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20999-dec-1-grain-stocks-top-expectati-syngenta-ca.md) | -2.8% | -1.7% |
| CORN | 2025-09-30 | [USDA Grain Stocks 'Surprise' With Larger Corn Inventories Than Expected](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9842-usda-grain-stocks-surprise-with-larger-corn-inventories-than-expected.md) | +0.8% | +1.0% |
| CORN | 2019-06-28 | [USDA acreage report shocks the market](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58542-usda-acreage-report-shocks-the-market.md) | -2.0% | -4.5% |
| WHEAT | 2022-01-12 | [Markets mixed on USDA data](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43102-markets-mixed-on-usda-data.md) | +3.9% | +2.0% |
| WHEAT | 2022-07-12 | [USDA Reports Cause Grain, Soybean Markets to Continue to Plunge](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4307-usda-reports-cause-grain-soybean-markets-to-continue-to-plunge.md) | +7.2% | +7.0% |
| WHEAT | 2021-06-09 | [Ag Markets Pause Ahead of Tomorrow’s USDA Report \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46546-ag-markets-pause-ahead-of-tomorrow-s-usda-report-feed-and-grain.md) | +5.6% | -5.2% |

## Sources

- farmprogress.com: https://www.farmprogress.com/marketing/corn-stock-sticker-shock

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.