# El Niño Briefing #15 — week to 2026-11-13 | El Niño 2026 Tracker

> NOAA cut its chance that this El Niño becomes the strongest since 1950 to about 60%, down from 83% a month earlier, in its 12 November update. Niño 3.4 eased to +3.3 °C while Niño 1+2 reached a record +5.6 °C, and CPC still expects strengthening before weakening in early 2027.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-13T18:13:52.867Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/98162-el-nino-briefing-15-week-to-2026-11-13-el-nino-2026-tracker
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A strong El Niño typically cuts output in Asia, Australia and parts of South America, supporting prices for rice, sugar, palm oil and feed grains. The lower odds slightly reduce the chance of an extreme event, but the outlook remains supportive for weather-sensitive crops.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: neutral
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2026-05-29 | [WMO: El Niño/La Niña Update (May 2026) - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18730-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-may-2026-world-reliefweb.md) | -4.1% | +1.3% |
| RICE | 2023-03-09 | [Transition from La Niña to El Niño may be quick \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36755-transition-from-la-nina-to-el-nino-may-be-quick-world-grain.md) | +8.1% | +5.3% |
| RICE | 2023-07-07 | [Malaysia forecasts peak of El Niño to hit in early 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34966-malaysia-forecasts-peak-of-el-nino-to-hit-in-early-2024.md) | +1.4% | -13.7% |
| RICE | 2024-02-19 | [The El Niño weather pattern shapes 2024 commodity price forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31589-the-el-nino-weather-pattern-shapes-2024-commodity-price-forecast.md) | -0.2% | -3.0% |
| RICE | 2026-04-09 | [Rising Odds of Strong El Niño Point to Global Weather and Crop Impacts - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19631-rising-odds-of-strong-el-nino-point-to-global-weather-and-crop-impacts-bloomberg.md) | -1.4% | +6.9% |
| PALMOIL | 2018-10-19 | [Southwest Climate Outlook El Niño Tracker - October 2018 \| CLIMAS](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62474-southwest-climate-outlook-el-nino-tracker-october-2018-climas.md) | -0.9% | -9.6% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-08-26 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2026)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17828-el-nino-la-nina-update-august-2026.md) | +5.4% | +1.4% |
| PALMOIL | 2018-09-19 | [El Niño looming \| 2018-09-19 \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62946-el-nino-looming-2018-09-19-world-grain.md) | -0.6% | -0.6% |

## Sources

- elninolive.com: https://www.elninolive.com/briefing/2026-11-13

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.