# Further declines in wheat prices will depend on the resumption of Black Sea exports

> Analysts say the direction of global wheat prices depends largely on whether exports through the Black Sea resume, with a restart seen as bearish and continued restrictions nearing a price floor. On November 13, CBOT wheat rose 1.9% to $5.95 per bushel after touching $5.82, its lowest since June 30, while corn and soybeans also gained. Argentina's Rosario Grains Exchange raised its 2026/27 wheat forecast to 24.3 million tonnes.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-13T18:12:35.426Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/98152-further-declines-in-wheat-prices-will-depend-on-the-resumption-of-black-sea
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Blocked Black Sea shipments keep Russian and Ukrainian wheat off the market, which supports prices. Any reopening would add supply and pressure prices, while new Argentine crop supply also caps rallies.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2025-04-08 | [Shipbrokers weigh the impact of a Black Sea peace deal on grain exports](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14212-shipbrokers-weigh-the-impact-of-a-black-sea-peace-deal-on-grain-exports.md) | +1.7% | +5.2% |
| WHEAT | 2025-04-03 | [Ceasefire or stalemate? Grain exports at risk in Black Sea deal - Food & Agribusiness](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14216-ceasefire-or-stalemate-grain-exports-at-risk-in-black-sea-deal-food-and.md) | -0.6% | +2.0% |
| WHEAT | 2026-04-17 | [Russian wheat exports through Caspian Sea resume after long hiatus](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14121-russian-wheat-exports-through-caspian-sea-resume-after-long-hiatus.md) | -0.7% | -0.2% |
| WHEAT | 2022-04-04 | [Prospects for Australian Wheat Exports Amid the Ukraine-Russia Conflict —Australian Institute of International Affairs](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41820-prospects-for-australian-wheat-exports-amid-the-ukraine-russia-conflict.md) | -7.3% | -4.2% |
| WHEAT | 2018-11-29 | [Russia Does Not Expect Ukraine Crisis to Have Big Impact on Grain Exports - Business Insider](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61917-russia-does-not-expect-ukraine-crisis-to-have-big-impact-on-grain-exports.md) | +1.4% | +3.7% |
| SOY | 2026-07-30 | [First Thing Today \| Wheat rallies overnight on Black Sea shipping disruptions - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18380-first-thing-today-wheat-rallies-overnight-on-black-sea-shipping-disruptions-pro.md) | -2.2% | +6.5% |
| SOY | 2022-02-26 | [Black Sea Grain Export Disruptions Won't Be Easy to Replace, Analyst Says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42751-black-sea-grain-export-disruptions-won-t-be-easy-to-replace-analyst-says.md) | +5.4% | +7.5% |
| SOY | 2023-11-22 | [Wheat jumps 1% to near 2-week high on Black Sea supply concerns - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12251-wheat-jumps-1-to-near-2-week-high-on-black-sea-supply-concerns-markets-business.md) | -2.2% | -5.0% |

## Sources

- ukragroconsult.com: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/further-declines-in-wheat-prices-will-depend-on-the-resumption-of-black-sea-exports/
- ukr.net: https://www.ukr.net/news/details/economics/120495221.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.