# Understand why Conab cut the grain harvest projection by 1 million tonnes

> Conab lowered its 2026/27 Brazilian grain crop estimate to 366.1 million tonnes from 367.1 million in October. Soybean (181.6 Mt) and corn (148 Mt) forecasts were unchanged, and the cut came from rice and wheat. Rice output is now seen at 10.5 Mt, down 4.7% year on year, after heavy rain in Rio Grande do Sul.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-13T18:12:11.232Z
- Category: report · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/98147-understand-why-conab-cut-the-grain-harvest-projection-by-1-million-tonnes
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Lower rice and wheat output tightens domestic supply and supports prices for those grains, while soybean and corn balances are unchanged. The cut is small, so the effect on world prices is limited.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2019-09-23 | [Floods force govt to revise kharif output projections to 140 mt - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57020-floods-force-govt-to-revise-kharif-output-projections-to-140-mt-the.md) | -1.3% | -3.3% |
| RICE | 2018-04-26 | [Smaller US maize harvest hikes prices \| Analysis & Features \| The Grocer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10866-smaller-us-maize-harvest-hikes-prices-analysis-and-features-the-grocer.md) | -2.7% | -9.0% |
| RICE | 2021-07-22 | [India’s grain production to reach new record highs  \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46030-india-s-grain-production-to-reach-new-record-highs-world-grain.md) | +2.6% | -0.2% |
| RICE | 2023-01-30 | [USDA attache sees Australia 2022/23 wheat crop at 37 million tons](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37735-usda-attache-sees-australia-2022-23-wheat-crop-at-37-million-tons.md) | -3.1% | -7.2% |
| RICE | 2026-07-29 | [USDA projects long-grain rice stocks down 52% this year](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18427-usda-projects-long-grain-rice-stocks-down-52-this-year.md) | +2.2% | +5.3% |
| WHEAT | 2026-07-17 | [Global grain production to fall by 69 mln tons after record harvest](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5065-global-grain-production-to-fall-by-69-mln-tons-after-record-harvest.md) | +3.8% | +0.1% |
| WHEAT | 2024-02-14 | [2023 crop report: WA grain harvest falls to 14.5 million tonnes after two record years \| Countryman](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31622-2023-crop-report-wa-grain-harvest-falls-to-14-5-million-tonnes-after-two-record.md) | +0.1% | -5.0% |
| WHEAT | 2017-12-05 | [Winter crop set to fall to 35.1 million tonnes: ABARES - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67431-winter-crop-set-to-fall-to-35-1-million-tonnes-abares-grain-central.md) | -4.7% | -2.6% |

## Sources

- globorural.globo.com: https://globorural.globo.com/agricultura/noticia/2026/11/entenda-por-que-a-conab-cortou-em-1-milhao-de-toneladas-a-projecao-para-a-safra-de-graos.ghtml

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.